The quick read: About half of the agency and CMBS apartment loans written in 2021 and 2022 that mature by the end of 2028 need new equity to refinance. A loan-level resizing published in Commercial Observer on October 19, 2026 found that 46% of those loans, and 57% of their balance, cannot refinance at current coupons without fresh cash, against 15% of loans written in 2016 through 2018. Across every maturing loan that falls short, the median gap is 15% of the loan, or about $25,000 per apartment. The size of your own check starts with two numbers, your building's net operating income today and the coupon a new loan is sized at, and a lender's loan-to-value cap can make it larger, so start there rather than with the 2021 appraisal.
How big is the refinance gap on apartment loans maturing through 2028?
The refinance gap on agency and CMBS apartment loans maturing from October 2026 through 2028 is $6.8 billion, according to a resizing of $136 billion in loans published in Commercial Observer on October 19, 2026, which found that 23% of them, and 31% of their balance, cannot refinance without new equity at current coupons.
The universe was every multifamily loan in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) deals maturing between October 2026 and December 2028. Each loan was resized at current new-issue coupons plus September's rate increase and tested against 1.25 times debt service coverage. Among the loans that came up short, the median shortfall was 15% of the loan, or about $25,000 per apartment.
One example in the piece shows the arithmetic at full scale. A 767-unit apartment tower near Wall Street, 94% occupied in the second quarter and current on its loan, carries a $246 million agency loan at a 4.01% coupon that matures in February 2027. Its 2025 net operating income (NOI) of $15.5 million would support a new loan of about $183 million at agency rates when the October 19 piece ran, the publication reports, leaving a gap of roughly $63 million.
Location changes the odds. Among the largest markets, the resizing published in Commercial Observer puts the share of maturing multifamily debt that falls short at 70% in San Francisco, 55% in Atlanta and 51% in Denver, against 24% in Los Angeles and 13% in Chicago.
Maturing agency and CMBS multifamily loans resized (Commercial Observer, October 19, 2026): $136 billion, October 2026 to December 2028 maturities Share of loans that need new equity, all vintages: 23% Share of balance that needs new equity, all vintages: 31% Total new equity needed: $6.8 billion Median shortfall among loans that fall short: 15% of the loan, about $25,000 per apartment
Why are apartment loans from 2021 and 2022 the hardest to refinance?
Among agency and CMBS apartment loans maturing from October 2026 through 2028, those from 2021 and 2022 are the hardest to refinance because they were written at a median coupon of 3.35% and now face refinancing rates roughly 2 to 3 points higher, Commercial Observer reports, so 46% of them and 57% of their balance need new equity.
Only 15% of the loans written in 2016, 2017 and 2018 need new equity. The older loans had years of rent growth to catch up with higher rates. The 2021 and 2022 loans were sized near the bottom of the rate cycle and are coming due after the increase.
Table: Who needs new equity to refinance, by loan cohort
| Measure | 2016 to 2018 agency and CMBS loans | 2021 to 2022 agency and CMBS loans | All maturing agency and CMBS loans | 2021 to 2022 CRE CLO bridge loans, top five states (contrast) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measure Median coupon | 2016 to 2018 agency and CMBS loans Not stated | 2021 to 2022 agency and CMBS loans 3.35% at origination | All maturing agency and CMBS loans Not stated | 2021 to 2022 CRE CLO bridge loans, top five states (contrast) 7.16% now, floating over SOFR |
| Measure Share of loans that need new equity | 2016 to 2018 agency and CMBS loans 15% | 2021 to 2022 agency and CMBS loans 46% | All maturing agency and CMBS loans 23% | 2021 to 2022 CRE CLO bridge loans, top five states (contrast) Not measured |
| Measure Share of balance that needs new equity | 2016 to 2018 agency and CMBS loans Not stated | 2021 to 2022 agency and CMBS loans 57% | All maturing agency and CMBS loans 31% | 2021 to 2022 CRE CLO bridge loans, top five states (contrast) Not measured |
| Measure Coverage test or reading | 2016 to 2018 agency and CMBS loans 1.25x at current coupons | 2021 to 2022 agency and CMBS loans 1.25x at current coupons | All maturing agency and CMBS loans 1.25x at current coupons | 2021 to 2022 CRE CLO bridge loans, top five states (contrast) Median NCF DSCR 0.64x, from 1.60x at securitization |
| Measure Median shortfall | 2016 to 2018 agency and CMBS loans Not stated | 2021 to 2022 agency and CMBS loans Not stated | All maturing agency and CMBS loans 15% of the loan, about $25,000 per apartment | 2021 to 2022 CRE CLO bridge loans, top five states (contrast) Not measured |
| Measure Source and date | 2016 to 2018 agency and CMBS loans Commercial Observer, October 19, 2026 | 2021 to 2022 agency and CMBS loans Commercial Observer, October 19, 2026 | All maturing agency and CMBS loans Commercial Observer, October 19, 2026 | 2021 to 2022 CRE CLO bridge loans, top five states (contrast) Trepp, October 16, 2026 |
The three agency and CMBS columns cover only loans maturing between October 2026 and December 2028. The bridge column is a contrast, not a refinance test: Trepp reports coverage on outstanding loans, while the resizing asks whether a maturing loan can be replaced.
Income is the other half of the split. Loans that clear the test have grown NOI a median 31% since underwriting, while loans that fall short have seen NOI drop a median 12%, the publication reports. Two buildings with the same 2021 coupon can land on opposite sides of the line because one grew its rent roll and the other lost ground on expenses or occupancy.
Why did the September 17 SOFR jump widen the gap?
The September 17 jump widened the gap because the Secured Overnight Financing Rate rose from 3.62% to 3.85% that day, Commercial Observer reports, and the resizing it published found that passing the increase through to permanent loan coupons pushed 178 more loans, with $4 billion of balance, below 1.25 times coverage and added $846 million to the equity gap.
The jump came the day a federal funds target range of 3.75% to 4.00% took effect. The Federal Open Market Committee announced that quarter-point increase on September 16, 2026, and its implementation note set the new range effective September 17.
The mechanism is the size test, not the old payment. A permanent lender sizes a new loan so that NOI covers the annual debt service a set number of times, so a higher coupon shrinks the maximum loan even when NOI does not move. Every dollar the old loan owes above that maximum becomes cash the borrower brings to closing. If your 2021 loan carries a fixed rate, September's move never touched your payment; it reaches you at maturity, when the replacement loan is sized.
SOFR move on September 17, 2026 (Commercial Observer, October 19, 2026): 3.62% to 3.85% Federal funds target range effective September 17, 2026 (Federal Reserve implementation note, September 16, 2026): 3.75% to 4.00% Loans pushed below 1.25x by the increase (Commercial Observer, October 19, 2026): 178, with $4 billion of balance Equity gap added by the increase (Commercial Observer, October 19, 2026): $846 million
How do you estimate your own building's equity check?
You can estimate your own equity check by dividing current NOI by 1.25, dividing that by the new loan's annual debt constant, and subtracting the result from the balance due at maturity; on our illustrative 100-unit building, a 12% NOI decline and a 6.00% coupon produce a gap of about $2.3 million, or $23,000 per apartment.
Illustrative example (our arithmetic, not a quote or a lender offer): a 100-unit building took a $16,000,000 fixed-rate, interest-only loan in 2021 at 3.35%, the 2021 and 2022 median coupon the publication reports, against underwritten NOI of $1,400,000. The full balance is due at maturity. The replacement loan is assumed at a 6.00% coupon, 2.65 points above the old one and inside the 2 to 3 point range the publication cites, on a 30-year amortization. That gives an annual debt constant of 7.19%, and the loan is sized at the 1.25 times coverage test the resizing used.
Balance due at maturity (assumed): $16,000,000, or $160,000 per apartment Old annual interest at 3.35% (assumed): $536,000, covered 2.61 times by underwritten NOI NOI flat at $1,400,000: maximum new loan $15,567,000, gap $433,000, about $4,300 per apartment NOI down 12% to $1,232,000: maximum new loan $13,699,000, gap $2,301,000 (14.4% of the loan), about $23,000 per apartment NOI up 31% to $1,834,000: maximum new loan $20,393,000 on coverage, no coverage gap
The down-12% and up-31% paths use the medians the publication reports for loans that fail and pass the test, which is why the decline path lands close to the 15% median shortfall. Push the coupon up by September's 0.23 points, to 6.23%, assuming it passes through in full, and the down-12% building's maximum loan falls to $13,368,000. Its gap rises to $2,632,000, about $26,300 per apartment: $331,000 more cash from a move that never changed the old fixed-coupon payment.
Coverage is only one test. Lenders also cap proceeds at a share of appraised value, and the lower of the two results governs, so a building whose value fell can face a gap even when coverage clears. Run both in the loan sizing calculator with your own trailing NOI, a current coupon quote and an honest value estimate.
Are bridge loans from 2021 and 2022 in worse shape?
Bridge loans from 2021 and 2022 are in worse shape on coverage: Trepp data published October 16, 2026 shows CRE CLO multifamily loans securitized in those years in the five states with the most securitized multifamily debt at a median net cash flow DSCR of 0.64x, down from 1.60x at securitization.
The cohort is 93 loans with $3.95 billion outstanding, every one floating over SOFR, at a median coupon of 7.16%. In those five states it makes up 12.2% of CRE CLO multifamily balance but 80.2% of the delinquent balance, and it is delinquent at 20.21%, against 0.69% for CRE CLO loans securitized in every other year, Trepp reports.
The difference from the agency and CMBS cohort is timing. A floating-rate bridge loan's coupon equals SOFR plus a spread set at origination, so it took the rate increase month by month unless an interest rate cap limited it: SOFR averaged 0.04% in 2021, Trepp reports, and reached 3.85% on September 17, 2026, according to Commercial Observer. A 2021 loan on a fixed coupon takes its increase, roughly 2 to 3 percentage points according to Commercial Observer, in one step, at maturity, when the replacement loan is sized. Trepp also notes that its fields do not separate the effect of higher debt service from changes in cash flow, so the coverage drop is not a pure rate story.
CRE CLO multifamily loans securitized 2021 to 2022, five largest securitized multifamily states (Trepp, October 16, 2026): 93 loans, $3.95 billion outstanding Share of CRE CLO multifamily balance: 12.2% Share of delinquent balance: 80.2% Delinquency rate: 20.21%, against 0.69% for other years Median NCF DSCR: 0.64x in the most recent reporting period, 1.60x at securitization Median coupon: 7.16%
What are your options when the new loan comes up short?
When the new loan comes up short, the options are to pay the balance down to what the new loan supports, fill part of the gap with mezzanine debt or preferred equity, take a bridge loan while NOI recovers, negotiate an extension or modification with the current lender or servicer, or sell; each trades cost against time.
Cash-in refinance. The replacement loan is sized on today's NOI and coupon, and you fund the difference at closing along with closing costs. It is the cleanest result and the largest check.
Mezzanine debt or preferred equity. A subordinate piece behind the new first mortgage covers part of the shortfall at a higher cost than the senior loan, and the senior lender has to approve it. Your check shrinks; the claims on the property's cash flow grow.
Bridge loan. A short-term loan sized on a business plan buys time for NOI to recover before permanent financing. The Trepp data above shows the 2021 and 2022 bridge cohort, every loan floating over SOFR, at a median 0.64x coverage, so model the payment at the current SOFR level and ask what rate cap the lender requires.
Extension or modification. The publication reports one 850-unit property's conduit loan, underwritten at 1.34 times coverage, that fell to 0.61 times by year-end 2025 as expenses rose, was modified by its special servicer in November 2025 and now matures in August 2027. A modification is a negotiation, and the servicer can ask for a paydown, new reserves or cash management in return, so price it against a cash-in refinance.
Sale. When the equity needed is larger than the value you place on keeping the building, selling before maturity is the remaining choice.
For the full sequence of a 2026 maturity, from ordering the appraisal to choosing a loan program, see how to refinance a multifamily loan maturing in 2026.
How do you get a cash-in apartment refinance placed?
Getting a cash-in apartment refinance placed starts with sizing the gap on current NOI and then putting the loan in front of enough lenders to find the largest proceeds at a workable coupon, and our first recommendation, as the publisher of this guide, is YieldStack, a commercial mortgage brokerage that compares lender terms and negotiates on your side.
Option 1, a commercial mortgage brokerage (our pick): YieldStack. YieldStack is an AI-native commercial mortgage brokerage that arranges financing for commercial real estate investors. Software matches the refinance against 20,000+ loan programs and compares the terms; human brokers structure the deal, negotiate on the borrower's side and carry it toward closing. YieldStack reports a median first offer in under an hour, from an institutional lender. It costs Zero upfront to submit a deal and review offers; YieldStack's broker fee is 0.50–1.00% of the loan amount and is paid only at closing. Every credit decision is made by the lender; YieldStack arranges the introductions and negotiates on the borrower's side, and no loan, rate, or closing is guaranteed.
That fits a cash-in refinance because the coverage test turns each lender's coupon, amortization and coverage floor into a dollar figure: the equity check. Comparing term sheets side by side shows the cash you need at closing, not only the rate.
Option 2, your current lender or servicer. The right first call for an extension or modification, but it shows you one lender's sizing.
Option 3, calling lenders yourself. Workable with time and relationships, but each lender sizes on its own assumptions and you build the comparison.
The package that gets comparable refinance quotes carries:
- Trailing 12-month operating statement and current rent roll
- The existing loan's balance, coupon, maturity date and any prepayment terms
- Capital spending since origination and the plan for the next two years
- The equity you can bring, and whether subordinate capital is acceptable
When it is ready, send the refinance for a lender review. Apartment loan programs are summarized on the multifamily loans page.
The bottom line
About half of the agency and CMBS apartment loans written in 2021 and 2022 that mature by the end of 2028 need new equity to refinance: 46% of those loans and 57% of their balance, according to the resizing published in Commercial Observer on October 19, 2026. Across all maturing loans that fall short, the median gap is 15% of the loan, about $25,000 per apartment, and the September 17 SOFR increase added $846 million to the total. Your own number comes from current NOI, the replacement coupon and your lender's coverage floor (the resizing used 1.25 times), checked against its loan-to-value cap, and the practical way to shrink it is to compare how several lenders size the same building.