Free calculator
Lock vs. wait rate calculator
Every borrower holding a quote asks the same question: lock today, or wait for a better rate? This calculator makes the answer explicit. It prices the interest cost of locking now, prices three waiting scenarios at expected rates you choose, adds the short-term carry you would pay during the wait, weights them by your own probabilities, and reports which decision is expected to cost less.
- 20,000+loan programs screened
- 5–8matches on a typical deal
- under an hourto the median first offer
- Zero upfrontto submit and compare offers
How do you compare locking with waiting?
Interest = Loan × Expected rate × Term in years
Carry = Loan × Carry rate × (Months waited ÷ 12)
Scenario cost = Interest + Carry
Expected cost of waiting = Σ (Scenario cost × Probability) ÷ Σ Probability
What does waiting actually cost?
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Loan amount | $5,000,000 |
| Loan term | 60 months |
| Rate you can lock today | 7.50% |
| Carry rate while waiting | 11.00% |
| One-month expected rate | 7.30% |
| One-month probability | 45.00% |
| Two-month expected rate | 7.10% |
| Two-month probability | 30.00% |
| Three-month expected rate | 6.90% |
| Three-month probability | 25.00% |
- Lock now: $5,000,000 × 7.50% over five years = $1,875,000 of interest.
- One-month wait at 7.30%: $1,825,000 of interest plus $45,833 of carry = $1,870,833.
- Two-month wait at 7.10%: $1,775,000 plus $91,667 = $1,866,667.
- Three-month wait at 6.90%: $1,725,000 plus $137,500 = $1,862,500.
- Weighted 45%, 30% and 25%, the expected cost of waiting is $1,867,500.
- Against $1,875,000 to lock today, waiting is expected to save $7,500.
Expected saving from waiting$7,500
A $7,500 edge on a $5,000,000 loan is about a tenth of a percent of the balance — well inside the error on anyone’s rate forecast. A result this close is really telling you the decision does not turn on the rate view; it turns on whether you can afford to carry the property for another quarter.
How do you read the result?
The output is a comparison of your own assumptions, not a forecast. The calculator has no view on rates; it takes yours and shows what it implies. If you would not put a probability on a rate move, that reluctance is itself the answer, and locking removes a risk you have declined to price.
Watch the size of the gap rather than its direction. A small edge either way is noise against the carry, the spread the lender may reprice, and the cost of a rate cap or an extension, none of which this model carries. A large edge is worth acting on; a narrow one usually means take the certainty.
Why include a carry cost at all?
Because waiting is rarely free. A borrower who delays a refinance or a purchase normally pays a higher short-term rate in the meantime, and that carry is the cost most lock-or-wait arguments leave out. It is charged for the months spent waiting only, which is why a longer wait needs a bigger rate improvement to pay for itself.
What does this model leave out?
The price of a rate cap or a lock extension, any change in the lender’s spread over the index, and the risk that the quote itself is withdrawn. Each of those pushes in favour of locking, so treat a narrow win for waiting as a tie.
What happens after you have the number?
A ratio tells you where the deal stands; it does not tell you which lender will like it. You describe the deal once — about five minutes — and it is screened against 20,000+ loan programs. Most deals return 5–8 matches, the median first offer arrives in under an hour, and there is Zero upfront; the fee is 0.50–1.00%, paid only at closing.
YieldStack is a commercial mortgage brokerage, not a lender. The rate, the leverage and the credit decision belong to the lenders competing for your deal; our job is making sure the right ones see it at the same time, so the terms you compare are real competition rather than one desk’s appetite.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where do the probabilities come from?
From you. The calculator does not forecast rates; it makes your own view explicit and shows what it implies. Enter the probabilities so they sum to one hundred and the weighted figure reads as a straight expectation.
Is the result a recommendation to lock?
No. It is arithmetic on your inputs, not advice. It also ignores the cost of a rate cap or an extension and any change in the lender’s spread, each of which can move the answer.
Does the comparison use an amortizing payment?
No — it compares interest cost over the term, which is what changes when the rate changes. Principal repayment is the same in both branches and would cancel out of the comparison.
What if I can only wait one month?
Set the other two probabilities to zero. The expectation then runs over the single horizon you left, and the comparison is a straight one against locking today.
Is YieldStack a lender?
No. YieldStack is a commercial mortgage brokerage, not a lender. Every term sheet comes from a lender in the network and is subject to that lender's underwriting.
Does it cost anything to see terms?
No. It costs Zero upfront to submit a deal and review offers; YieldStack's broker fee is 0.50–1.00% of the loan amount and is paid only at closing.
Is financing guaranteed?
No. Every credit decision is made by the lender; YieldStack arranges the introductions and negotiates on the borrower's side, and no loan, rate, or closing is guaranteed.
Where does YieldStack operate?
Nationwide. YieldStack arranges commercial real estate financing nationwide. Every deal is business-purpose commercial financing, and the broker fee is paid only at closing.
You have the number.Now get the quotes.
YieldStack is a commercial mortgage brokerage, not a lender.