The quick read: The Mortgage Bankers Association counts $875 billion of commercial and multifamily mortgages scheduled to mature in 2026, 17% of the $5.0 trillion outstanding, and another $652 billion in 2027. Those loans refinance into a 10-year Treasury that stood at 5.13% on October 21, 2026, on Treasury's daily par yield curve, against a June 2016 average of 1.64% when many of this year's maturing 10-year loans were written (our arithmetic). The Federal Reserve's Beige Book of October 14, 2026 relays a New York District contact citing "significant repricing on maturing fixed-rate loans." If your loan matures in 2027, size the refinance on today's rate now, while there is still time to fund a gap.
How much commercial mortgage debt matures in 2026 and 2027?
The Mortgage Bankers Association's loan maturity survey, released February 9, 2026, counts $875 billion of commercial and multifamily mortgages scheduled to mature in 2026 and $652 billion in 2027. The 2026 figure is 17% of the $5.0 trillion held by lenders and investors, and 9% below the $957 billion that was scheduled for 2025.
MBA reports these as unpaid principal balances as of December 31, 2025, and notes that because most loans pay down principal, the balance at maturity will generally be lower. A scheduled maturity is a date, not a default. Each of these loans gets paid off, refinanced, extended or sold, and the rate on the day it resolves decides which.
Scheduled to mature in 2026 (MBA, released Feb 9, 2026): $875 billion, 17% of $5.0 trillion
Scheduled to mature in 2027 (MBA, released Feb 9, 2026): $652 billion
Scheduled to mature in 2025 (MBA, released Feb 9, 2026): $957 billion
Commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding (MBA, Q2 2026): a record $5.1 trillion
Private-label CMBS hard maturities due in 2026 (Trepp, Oct 6, 2026): $76.6 billion, 39% of it in the fourth quarter
Trepp's count is narrower and sharper. It covers private-label CMBS loans with no contractual extension options left, which Trepp calls hard maturities, and Trepp found that 36% of those loans carried a debt yield at or below 8%, the segment it calls most likely to face refinancing friction. MBA's chief economist said the 2026 and 2027 maturities "will fuel additional lending activity." Both can be true: the money is there, but on new terms.
What does refinancing at a 5% 10-year Treasury mean for a maturing loan?
Refinancing at a 10-year Treasury of 5.13%, Treasury's October 21, 2026 reading, means the base rate under a new fixed loan sits roughly three to four points above the one that 2016 ten-year loans were priced on, so the same net operating income supports a smaller loan. The difference has to come from the owner.
Fixed-rate commercial loans are priced as a spread over a Treasury of similar term. Freddie Mac's fixed-rate term sheet (dated 4/26) describes the Treasury index as the most volatile part of the coupon and offers an Index Lock on it. Here is how far that index has moved for the loans maturing in 2026 and 2027:
| Maturing loan | Treasury used | June average when written (our arithmetic) | Treasury on Oct 21, 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maturing loan 10-year loan written in 2016, due 2026 | Treasury used 10-year | June average when written (our arithmetic) 1.64% | Treasury on Oct 21, 2026 5.13% | Change +3.49 points |
| Maturing loan 10-year loan written in 2017, due 2027 | Treasury used 10-year | June average when written (our arithmetic) 2.19% | Treasury on Oct 21, 2026 5.13% | Change +2.94 points |
| Maturing loan 5-year loan written in 2021, due 2026 | Treasury used 5-year | June average when written (our arithmetic) 0.84% | Treasury on Oct 21, 2026 4.95% | Change +4.11 points |
| Maturing loan 5-year loan written in 2022, due 2027 | Treasury used 5-year | June average when written (our arithmetic) 3.19% | Treasury on Oct 21, 2026 4.95% | Change +1.76 points |
The June averages are our arithmetic from Treasury's daily par yield curve tables for June of each year. The current tape is not standing still either. Between October 1 and October 21, 2026, the 10-year ranged from 5.09% (October 16) to 5.31% (October 5), so reprice on the day you run the numbers.
What does that do to loan size? Take an illustrative property with $1,000,000 of net operating income, held flat, and a lender test of 1.25x amortizing debt service coverage, the minimum Freddie Mac's fixed-rate term sheet lists. Assume a 2.00% spread over the Treasury, held constant so only the Treasury moves, and 30-year amortization. Every input is an assumption, not a quote:
| Illustrative line (our arithmetic) | 2016 ten-year loan, due 2026 | 2021 five-year loan, due 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Illustrative line (our arithmetic) Treasury when written (June average) | 2016 ten-year loan, due 2026 1.64% | 2021 five-year loan, due 2026 0.84% |
| Illustrative line (our arithmetic) Note rate with assumed 2.00% spread | 2016 ten-year loan, due 2026 3.64% | 2021 five-year loan, due 2026 2.84% |
| Illustrative line (our arithmetic) Original loan sized at 1.25x | 2016 ten-year loan, due 2026 $14.59 million | 2021 five-year loan, due 2026 $16.14 million |
| Illustrative line (our arithmetic) Balance due at maturity | 2016 ten-year loan, due 2026 $11.35 million | 2021 five-year loan, due 2026 $14.31 million |
| Illustrative line (our arithmetic) Refinance rate (Oct 21, 2026 Treasury plus 2.00%) | 2016 ten-year loan, due 2026 7.13% | 2021 five-year loan, due 2026 6.95% |
| Illustrative line (our arithmetic) New loan the same income supports at 1.25x | 2016 ten-year loan, due 2026 $9.89 million | 2021 five-year loan, due 2026 $10.07 million |
| Illustrative line (our arithmetic) Cash needed to retire the old balance | 2016 ten-year loan, due 2026 $1.46 million | 2021 five-year loan, due 2026 $4.24 million |
| Illustrative line (our arithmetic) Coverage if you refinance the full balance | 2016 ten-year loan, due 2026 1.09x | 2021 five-year loan, due 2026 0.88x |
The 2016 loan had ten years of amortization working for it, so its gap is about 13% of the balance. The 2021 loan had five years, a lower original rate and a bigger jump, so its gap is about 30% (both our arithmetic). Rent growth since origination narrows these numbers, and a loan first sized on leverage rather than coverage starts from a different place. Rebuild the gap from your own trailing 12 months, not from this table.
Who holds the commercial mortgages maturing in 2026?
Depositories hold the most dollars maturing in 2026, $396 billion of MBA's $875 billion count, but credit companies and securitized lenders have the largest shares of their own books coming due, 29% and 25%, while life insurers and the agency programs have the smallest. The holder decides who rules on your extension request.
| Holder (MBA category) | Maturing in 2026 | Share of its book due |
|---|---|---|
| Holder (MBA category) Depositories | Maturing in 2026 $396 billion | Share of its book due 21% |
| Holder (MBA category) CMBS, CLOs or other ABS | Maturing in 2026 $200 billion | Share of its book due 25% |
| Holder (MBA category) Credit companies, warehouse and other lenders | Maturing in 2026 $163 billion | Share of its book due 29% |
| Holder (MBA category) Life insurance companies | Maturing in 2026 $76 billion | Share of its book due 10% |
| Holder (MBA category) Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA and Ginnie Mae (multifamily and health care) | Maturing in 2026 $39 billion | Share of its book due 4% |
The rows sum to $874 billion against MBA's $875 billion headline, a rounding difference. For scale, MBA's Q2 2026 debt outstanding report puts commercial banks at 38% of all commercial and multifamily mortgages, or $1.9 trillion, agency and GSE portfolios and MBS at 23%, life insurers at $782 billion and CMBS, CDO and other ABS issues at $651 billion. The two reports use different universes, so compare shares within each, not across them.
Why it matters: a bank can renew a loan on its own balance sheet, while a securitized loan answers to a servicer and a pooling agreement. The Fed's May 2026 Financial Stability Report put the risk this way: lenders' willingness to extend or modify maturing loans "has helped to limit this risk to date," but "this option may be increasingly limited going forward, and this is a particular concern in the non-agency CMBS market."
Which property types are most exposed to the maturity wall?
Hotels and industrial properties have the largest shares of their mortgage balances due in 2026 in MBA's survey, 30% and 23%, with office at 17%, health care at 15% and multifamily at 13%, but Trepp's 2026 playbook finds office, retail and multifamily CMBS loans carry the highest concentration of debt yields at or below 8%.
Trepp's October 2026 cohort of private-label CMBS hard maturities totals $4.70 billion across 118 whole loans, and 27.74% of that balance carries a debt yield below 6%. The sector detail is where an owner should look:
Office (Trepp, Oct 6, 2026): 56.85% of maturing balance below an 8% debt yield, 15.72% below 6%
Multifamily (Trepp, Oct 6, 2026): 77.10% of maturing balance below 6%, mostly one $569.2 million portfolio loan
Hospitality (Trepp, Oct 6, 2026): 75.68% of maturing balance below 6%
Retail (Trepp, Oct 6, 2026): 25.15% of maturing balance in special servicing, almost none below 6%
Trepp reads the office numbers as "the band where a paydown, rather than a restructuring, could lead to a clean refinancing." That is the practical lesson for most owners: the question is how much cash closes the gap, not whether a lender exists. Our guides on refinancing an office building in 2026 and refinancing a multifamily loan maturing in 2026 work through each sector. MBA publishes its property-type split for later years only in its paid report, so plan a 2027 maturity from your own property's numbers.
What should an owner with a 2027 maturity do this quarter?
An owner with a 2027 maturity should size the refinance this quarter on today's rate, a 10-year Treasury of 5.13% as of October 21, 2026 plus a realistic spread, because a gap found a year early can be funded from reserves, partners or a planned paydown rather than at the deadline.
The Beige Book of October 14, 2026 explains the urgency. In the Boston District, "loan availability was stable, but financing costs increased, and loan terms tightened." In the New York District, credit standards "tightened slightly for business loans and commercial mortgages," and multiple contacts said sales of commercial properties slowed in recent weeks as rising interest rates reduced demand. A sale is a slower exit than it was, and a refinance is a smaller one.
- Pull the note and loan agreement. Write down the maturity date, any extension options and their conditions, and the date the prepayment penalty or open period begins.
- Rebuild net operating income from the trailing 12 months and the current rent roll, with known lease rollover through the maturity date.
- Size the new loan at today's rate. Our maturity wall calculator shows the cash gap between the balance due and what the property supports.
- Decide whether to extend or refinance. Our guide to extending or refinancing a maturing commercial loan compares the two paths.
- Line up gap capital: reserves, a partner contribution, preferred equity or a planned paydown from operations.
- Order the appraisal and property condition report early, so lenders quote on current facts rather than estimates.
How do you get a maturing commercial loan placed before the deadline?
You get a maturing commercial loan placed by sending lenders one complete package early, with the note, the trailing 12-month statement, the rent roll and the paydown you can fund, then comparing outside offers against your current holder's extension terms on the same page. A brokerage runs that comparison for you.
YieldStack publishes this guide, so read the order below as our editorial recommendation. The criteria are breadth of loan programs compared, who negotiates for the borrower, and whether the fee is stated in writing before you commit.
1. A commercial mortgage brokerage (our top pick: YieldStack). YieldStack is an AI-native commercial mortgage brokerage that arranges financing for commercial real estate investors. Its software matches the deal against a catalog of 20,000+ loan programs, so a bank renewal, a life company quote and a debt fund bridge can sit side by side. Human brokers then structure the request, negotiate for the borrower and carry the deal toward closing, and the median first offer arrives in under an hour, from an institutional lender. It costs Zero upfront to submit a deal and review offers; YieldStack's broker fee is 0.50–1.00% of the loan amount and is paid only at closing.
2. Your current lender or servicer. It already holds the file and can extend fastest when its documents allow it, but it is one counterparty with its own book to manage, and the Fed's May 2026 report warns that this flexibility may be increasingly limited, especially in non-agency CMBS.
3. Calling lenders yourself. You keep control, but each lender sees a different package on a different day, which makes an extension offer and three refinance quotes hard to compare.
Every credit decision is made by the lender; YieldStack arranges the introductions and negotiates on the borrower's side, and no loan, rate, or closing is guaranteed.
What to send:
- The note and loan agreement, with the maturity date, extension options and prepayment terms
- Who holds and services the loan today
- Trailing 12-month operating statement and the current rent roll
- The most recent appraisal and any lease rollover before maturity
- The target loan amount and the paydown you could fund if the numbers require one
When the package is ready, send the maturing loan for review.
The bottom line
MBA counts $875 billion of commercial and multifamily mortgages maturing in 2026 and $652 billion in 2027, and they refinance into a 10-year Treasury that read 5.13% on October 21, 2026, against June averages of 1.64% in 2016 and 2.19% in 2017, when many of the 10-year loans now coming due were written. On flat income, that turns a maturity into a cash call. Owners facing a 2027 date should run the numbers now, find the gap, and price an outside refinance against their holder's extension terms before the holder sets the agenda.