The quick read: On October 28, 2026 the FOMC decided "to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent," according to the Fed's statement, so commercial real estate loan rates tied to prime and SOFR did not move: prime stayed at 7.00% and SOFR held near 3.94%. Fixed-rate quotes priced off Treasuries moved with the market instead, with the 10-year yield rising to 5.05% on decision day before easing to 4.98% on October 29, per the Federal Reserve's H.15 release.
Federal funds target range: 3-3/4 to 4 percent, held on October 28, 2026 (per the FOMC statement)
Vote: 10–2, with two members preferring a quarter-point increase (per the FOMC statement)
Bank prime loan rate: 7.00% on October 27 and October 29, 2026 (per the Federal Reserve's H.15 release)
10-year Treasury yield: 4.99% on October 27 and 4.98% on October 29, 2026 (per FRED)
What did the Fed decide on October 28, 2026?
The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent on October 28, 2026, by a 10–2 vote, according to the Fed's statement. Two members dissented in favor of a quarter-point increase. No change in the policy rate meant no change in the floating indexes most commercial loans reset on.
The statement says economic activity "is expanding at a strong pace" and that "inflation remains elevated." The two dissenters, Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, "preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting," per the same release. For a borrower, the dissent matters more than the hold: it tells you the debate on the committee ran toward tighter policy, not looser, and bond traders priced that in on the day.
The decision follows the September meeting, which we covered for bridge borrowers in what the September 2026 Fed decision did to bridge loan pricing. This page is the October record across every major commercial lender type.
How the October decision reached each commercial lender type
The decision reached commercial borrowers through the index each lender type prices off, so a hold left floating quotes unchanged while fixed quotes followed the Treasury market. The table below sets the index levels on October 27, the day before the decision, against October 29, the day after, so you can see which quotes actually moved.
Index levels below are per FRED and the Federal Reserve's H.15 release (released October 30, 2026). FRED had not yet posted the October 29 prime observation when we wrote this, so the October 29 prime figure is the H.15 value. Which index each lender type uses is common market practice; individual loan documents can name a different one. SOFR levels are FRED's overnight SOFR series, not a one-month term SOFR rate.
| Lender type | Index it usually prices off | Moves with the Fed the same day? | Level 2026-10-27 | Level 2026-10-29 | What a borrower holding a live quote should do |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lender type Bank, floating | Index it usually prices off Prime or SOFR | Moves with the Fed the same day? Yes, when the range changes | Level 2026-10-27 Prime 7.00%, SOFR 3.95% | Level 2026-10-29 Prime 7.00%, SOFR 3.94% | What a borrower holding a live quote should do Quote stands; confirm the index and margin in writing |
| Lender type Bank, fixed | Index it usually prices off 5-year Treasury | Moves with the Fed the same day? No, set by the bond market | Level 2026-10-27 4.82% | Level 2026-10-29 4.78% | What a borrower holding a live quote should do Ask when the rate is set and whether it floats until then |
| Lender type Credit union | Index it usually prices off Prime (floating) or Treasury (fixed) | Moves with the Fed the same day? Prime yes, Treasury no | Level 2026-10-27 Prime 7.00%, 10-year 4.99% | Level 2026-10-29 Prime 7.00%, 10-year 4.98% | What a borrower holding a live quote should do Treat it like the bank rows above |
| Lender type Debt fund / bridge | Index it usually prices off SOFR, often a one-month term rate | Moves with the Fed the same day? Yes, within a day or two | Level 2026-10-27 Overnight SOFR 3.95% | Level 2026-10-29 Overnight SOFR 3.94% | What a borrower holding a live quote should do Re-check the rate cap price and carry |
| Lender type Agency (GSE) multifamily | Index it usually prices off Treasury (fixed) or SOFR (floating) | Moves with the Fed the same day? Fixed no, floating yes | Level 2026-10-27 10-year 4.99%, SOFR 3.95% | Level 2026-10-29 10-year 4.98%, SOFR 3.94% | What a borrower holding a live quote should do Ask when the rate lock happens |
| Lender type Life company | Index it usually prices off 10-year Treasury | Moves with the Fed the same day? No, set by the bond market | Level 2026-10-27 4.99% | Level 2026-10-29 4.98% | What a borrower holding a live quote should do Ask whether an early rate lock is offered |
| Lender type CMBS conduit | Index it usually prices off 10-year Treasury or swaps | Moves with the Fed the same day? No, set by the bond market | Level 2026-10-27 4.99% | Level 2026-10-29 4.98% | What a borrower holding a live quote should do Rate is set near pricing; watch the gap to close |
| Lender type SBA 7(a) | Index it usually prices off Prime (or an SBA-allowed alternative) | Moves with the Fed the same day? Yes, prime follows the range | Level 2026-10-27 Prime 7.00% | Level 2026-10-29 Prime 7.00% | What a borrower holding a live quote should do Variable quote stands; check the SBA maximum |
| Lender type SBA 504 | Index it usually prices off 10-year Treasury (CDC portion) | Moves with the Fed the same day? No, set by the bond market | Level 2026-10-27 4.99% | Level 2026-10-29 4.98% | What a borrower holding a live quote should do Expect the debenture rate to follow the 10-year |
For current rate levels by property type, use the monthly commercial real estate loan rates for 2026 page or the live rate tape; this table is the event record for the October decision only.
Why did prime and SOFR hold while the 10-year Treasury moved?
Prime and SOFR hold when the Fed holds because both are anchored to the policy rate, while the 10-year Treasury yield is set every day by investors trading on their view of inflation and future policy. The October 28 statement moved the 10-year yield even though it moved no policy rate at all.
Prime is the rate posted by a majority of the 25 largest insured U.S.-chartered commercial banks, according to FRED's series notes, and in practice banks reset it the day a change in the target range takes effect. SOFR is an overnight secured funding rate, so it typically trades inside the range the Fed sets and follows any change within a day. With the range unchanged, prime read 7.00% on October 27, 28 and 29, per H.15, and SOFR read 3.95%, 3.94% and 3.94% on the same three days, per FRED.
The 10-year Treasury told a different story. It read 4.99% on October 27, rose to 5.05% on October 28 and fell back to 4.98% on October 29, per H.15. A hold with two hawkish dissents is new information for bond investors even though it changes nothing on a floating loan, and fixed commercial quotes inherit that information through their Treasury index. Our explainer on how a commercial loan interest rate is set covers how the index and the lender's spread combine.
Floating-rate loans priced off prime and SOFR did not move
Floating-rate commercial loans priced off prime or SOFR came through the October 28 decision at the same index level they started with, because the Fed held the target range and neither index changed. A borrower with a signed floating-rate term sheet saw no change in the coupon from the decision itself.
Bank lines and floating bank loans that use prime sat at 7.00% before and after the meeting. Bridge loans and debt fund loans typically price off SOFR, often a one-month term rate; overnight SOFR, the series FRED publishes, moved by a single basis point across the three days. The cost that did shift for bridge borrowers sits elsewhere: interest rate caps are priced off expectations for future SOFR, so a hawkish dissent can lift the price of a cap even when SOFR itself holds. For the full carrying cost of a bridge loan, including cap and reserve math, see what a commercial bridge loan really costs to carry.
Overnight SOFR, the index family behind most bridge loans: 3.94% on October 29, 2026, per FRED's daily SOFR series (a one-month term SOFR rate, which many bridge notes use, is a separate published rate not shown here)
What happened to fixed-rate loans priced off Treasuries?
Fixed-rate commercial loans priced off Treasuries saw a two-day swing rather than a level change, with the 10-year yield moving from 4.99% on October 27 to 5.05% on decision day and back to 4.98% on October 29, per the Federal Reserve's H.15 release. Timing, not the decision, decided the rate.
That matters most for life company loans, CMBS conduit loans, agency fixed-rate multifamily loans and the CDC portion of SBA 504 loans, all of which typically take their base from the 10-year Treasury. A borrower whose rate was set on October 28 locked at the high point of the week; one set on October 29 locked about 7 basis points lower. Shorter bank fixed loans follow the 5-year Treasury, which went from 4.82% on October 27 to 4.85% on October 28 and 4.78% on October 29, per H.15.
The gap between those two days is small next to a lender's spread, but on a large loan a few basis points over a full term is real money. The lesson from October is not to guess the Fed; it is to know exactly when your lender sets the rate and what index it uses.
SBA 7(a) and 504 loans responded differently to the hold
SBA 7(a) and SBA 504 loans reacted to the October hold in opposite ways, because 7(a) variable rates are usually pegged to prime while the 504 debenture follows the 10-year Treasury. Prime did not move, so variable 7(a) quotes did not either; 504 pricing tracked the Treasury market's two-day swing instead.
Per SBA's terms page, 7(a) maximum rates "are pegged to the prime rate or an optional peg rate," and the maximum on a variable-rate SBA 7(a) loan greater than $350,000 is the base rate plus 3.0%. Since March 1, 2026, lenders may also use the 5-year Treasury, the 10-year Treasury or SOFR as an alternative base, according to SBA's Federal Register notice published February 10, 2026. The 504 program is "pegged to an increment above the current market rate for 10-year U.S. Treasury issues," per SBA's 504 page.
Our arithmetic, for illustration: with prime at 7.00% on October 29, the variable-rate ceiling on a 7(a) loan over $350,000 priced off prime works out to 10.00%. A lender can quote below that ceiling; it is a maximum, not a price.
Should you lock, float or re-quote a commercial loan after the October decision?
Whether to lock, float or re-quote after the October decision depends on which index your quote is built on: a floating quote off prime or SOFR is unchanged, while a fixed quote off Treasuries should be checked against the yield on the day your lender actually sets it. Competing lenders on the same deal is how you find out.
YieldStack is an AI-native commercial mortgage brokerage that arranges financing for commercial real estate investors. Compare the routes in this order:
- Through a commercial mortgage brokerage (YieldStack). The deal is matched against 20,000+ loan programs, typically producing 5–8 matches. Brokers then structure the request and negotiate the terms on your side. It is a 5-minute submit, Zero upfront, and the fee is 0.50–1.00% of the loan amount, paid only at closing. The median first offer arrives in under an hour, from an institutional lender.
- Direct to one lender. You get that lender's index, spread and lock timing, and nothing to compare it against.
- Calling lenders yourself. You can compare, but each lender quotes on its own day and its own index, so the October swing in Treasuries makes the quotes hard to line up.
If you are holding a quote today, get your deal in front of competing lenders and ask each one to state the index, the spread and the rate-set date.
The bottom line
The October 28, 2026 decision held the federal funds range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, so prime stayed at 7.00% and SOFR near 3.94%, and floating commercial quotes did not change. Fixed quotes moved with the 10-year Treasury, which rose to 5.05% on decision day and settled at 4.98% the next. Know your index and your rate-set date.